This was supposed to be the summer when the
North American box office returned to form –finally from the pandemic slump.
“We believe that a dramatic reawakening of
the industrywide domestic box office has begun,” Adam Aron, chief executive of
AMC Entertainment, the continent’s largest theater operator, gleefully
told analysts in May. He predicted that Hollywood’s summer movies would be “barn burners, one
after another.”
Moviegoers, alas, were not cooperative.
Multiplexes
in the United States and Canada had their worst summer since 1981, after
adjusting for inflation and excluding the COVID pandemic years, when many
theaters were closed for long periods.
Is it time for Hollywood to concede
that a lot of moviegoers in North America are never coming back? That movie
theaters have permanently lost 20% to 25% of their costumers?
Those questions, which started as horrified
whispers in studio hallways last year, have become more openly discussed in
recent months.
Weekly ticket sales over the summer
highlight the concern. There were only two weeks when theaters in North America
collected more than $300 million. Theaters exceeded that threshold nine
weeks in the summer of 2019 when adjusting for inflation.
Even in 2024, also a year in which there
were only two $300 million-plus weeks, total ticket sales for the summer were
higher because of bigger hits, including “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine.”
Part of the challenge for movie studios is
marketing: Reaching a mass audience with ads for new movies has become harder,
a result of media fragmentation.
To cope, studios have increased their
reliance on franchises with established fan bases. Over the summer, 26 movies
collected at least $20 million in North America. Twenty of them were franchises
of some sort—sequels, remakes, spinoffs, reboots or based on a hit video
game.
But almost all of Hollywood’s franchises
have been so overworked that they are delivering diminishing returns. More than
half of the franchises released this summer have done worse than previous iterations.
Nothing is more valuable to a movie studio
than a revived franchise. Disney successfully rebooted “Fantastic Four”
superhero movies series, albeit on a more modest scale.
Which is to say: Hollywood’s franchise strategy is not going anywhere. As of now, studios have at least 14 franchises films scheduled for summer 2026. (Christine Zhang and Brooks Barnes)
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